Borussia M'bach U19 0–3 Stuttgart U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgart U19

K. Freßle 83' (pen), 49'

D. Migalić 42'

3/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 6Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1935%

×Draw21%

Stuttgart U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.03

Borussia M'bach U19

1.78

Stuttgart U19

2.03

Stuttgart U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 74 away

2.30

creates per match

2.74

1.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

56%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Stuttgart U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

65%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

18%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

83%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

53%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

26%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

87%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

60%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

44%

Stuttgart U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

D. Migalić

49'

K. Freßle

59'

T. Durna← S. Mule

66'

F. Fleck← K. Sauck

76'

S. Ketola← T. Koukkumäki

83'

F. Hoxha← Y. Dasbach

83'

F. Opoku Mensah← N. Vidic

83'

J. Oettinger← J. Lüers

83'

K. Kempf← I. Knežević

83'

L. Preuß← K. Freßle

83'

Xie Alexander← D. Hajdini

83'

K. FreßlePenalty

Borussia

Stuttgart

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kirch

66'▲F. Fleck←▼K. Sauck

76'▲S. Ketola←▼T. Koukkumäki

83'▲F. Hoxha←▼Y. Dasbach

83'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼N. Vidic

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

FleckKetolaHoxhaMensahKhadraouiNappiThimm

Manager: N. Willig

59'▲T. Durna←▼S. Mule

83'▲J. Oettinger←▼J. Lüers

83'▲K. Kempf←▼I. Knežević

83'▲L. Preuß←▼K. Freßle

83'▲Xie Alexander←▼D. Hajdini

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

DurnaOettingerKempfPreußAlexanderStojčević