Borussia M'bach U19 3–4 Stuttgart U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Stuttgart U19

N. Swider 83'

N. Horvat 29'

L. Worsdorfer 21'

Y. Spalt 86'

K. Kempf 79'

M. Tsigkas 59', 12'

12/14/2025

DFB Junioren Pokal · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1937%

×Draw20%

Stuttgart U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.23

Borussia M'bach U19

2.08

Stuttgart U19

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.67

creates per match

2.80

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.67

Stuttgart U19

2.80

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.67

Stuttgart U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

57%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Stuttgart U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

63%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

20%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

61%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

34%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

89%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

65%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.67 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.80 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

43%

Stuttgart U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

21'

29'

59'

79'

K. Kempf

83'

N. Swider

86'

Y. Spalt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff