Sturm Graz 3–2 Rukh Vynnyky: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Rukh Vynnyky

B. Teixeira 57'

T. Horvat 41'

E. Emegha 14'

Y. Klymchuk 45', 36'

1/31/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportski Centar Terme Čatež

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sturm Graz47%

×Draw22%

Rukh Vynnyky31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.56

Sturm Graz

1.94

Rukh Vynnyky

1.56

Sturm Graz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

2.30

creates per match

1.42

1.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sturm Graz

2.30

Rukh Vynnyky

1.42

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.70

Rukh Vynnyky

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

69%

Sturm Graz or Rukh Vynnyky

78%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky

53%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

26%

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

86%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

58%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

30%

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

79%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

46%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

60%

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 2.30 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.42 + Sturm Graz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

47%

level

22%

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

31%

Sturm Graz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

36'

41'

45'

57'

Sturm

Rukh

Manager: C. Ilzer

Manager: L. Kuchuk

Friendlies Clubs: Sturm Graz 3–2 Rukh Vynnyky

Sturm Graz beat Rukh Vynnyky 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2023.

Goals: E. Emegha (14'), Y. Klymchuk (36', 45'), T. Horvat (41'), B. Teixeira (57').

The match was played at Sportski Centar Terme Čatež in Čatež ob Savi.

Sturm Graz vs Rukh Vynnyky — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Sturm Graz 3–2 Rukh Vynnyky