Ruh Lviv vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Ruh Lviv51%
Sturm Graz23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ruh Lviv creates 64% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ruh Lviv ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ruh Lviv at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches
Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ruh Lviv attack 1.87 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54
Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Ruh Lviv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Ruh Lviv host Sturm Graz on Sunday, 2 February 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Ruh Lviv face Sturm Graz (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with Ruh Lviv hosting Sturm Graz. Match starts February 2, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Ruh Lviv host Sturm Graz at TBC.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.