Sturm Graz 1–4 Ruh Lviv: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ruh Lviv

M. Sarkaria 85' (pen)

Y. Karabin 77'

I. Krasnopir 63', 34'

D. Pidgurskyi 4' (pen)

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Gralla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sturm Graz47%

×Draw22%

Ruh Lviv31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchRuh Lviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.56

Sturm Graz

1.94

Ruh Lviv

1.56

Sturm Graz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

2.30

creates per match

1.42

1.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sturm Graz

2.30

Ruh Lviv

1.42

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.70

Ruh Lviv

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Ruh Lviv →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

69%

Sturm Graz or Ruh Lviv

78%

Draw or Ruh Lviv

53%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

26%

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

86%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

58%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

30%

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

79%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

46%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

60%

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 2.30 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ruh Lviv attack 1.42 + Sturm Graz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

47%

level

22%

Ruh Lviv scores more

31%

Sturm Graz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

D. PidgurskyiPenalty

34'

63'

77'

83'

85'

M. SarkariaPenalty

Sturm4-3-1-2

Ruh4-3-3

⚽2

⚽

⚽

Manager: C. Ilzer

Sturm Graz substitutes

LorenzBurgerSorgHödlKoitaWolff

Manager: V. Ponomariov

Ruh Lviv substitutes

GeretaVanivskyiKitelaSavchukTovarnytskyiBoikoNepeypievBrenerUhrynchukDenisovKlayverSlyusar

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs Ruh Lviv

Ruh Lviv beat Sturm Graz 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: D. Pidgurskyi (4' pen), I. Krasnopir (34', 63'), Y. Karabin (77'), M. Sarkaria (85' pen).

The match was played at Sportplatz Gralla in Gralla.

Sturm Graz vs Ruh Lviv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs Ruh Lviv