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Strumska Slava vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — Second League 2018

Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
12/8/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Strumska Slava38%
×Draw28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strumska Slava
1.23
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

creates per match

Strumska Slava
1.17
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.30

allows per match

Strumska Slava
1.03
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.30

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw
65%
Strumska Slava or Pirin Blagoevgrad
72%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
62%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+
16%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals
71%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
35%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
13%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
69%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
33%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
52%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.30 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Strumska Slava scores more
38%
level
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
35%

Strumska Slava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Strumska Slava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Strumska Slava 1–3 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Pirin Blagoevgrad beat Strumska Slava 3-1 in Second League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radomir.