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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Strumska Slava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad58%
×Draw21%
Strumska Slava21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
2.08
Strumska Slava
1.17

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 78% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
2.17
Strumska Slava
1.00

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.33
Strumska Slava
2.00

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
79%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Strumska Slava
79%
Draw or Strumska Slava
42%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
35%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
87%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
61%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
34%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
69%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
33%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
73%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 2.17 + Strumska Slava defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Strumska Slava attack 1.00 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
58%
level
21%
Strumska Slava scores more
21%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–3 Strumska Slava

Strumska Slava beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion selo Riltsi in Riltsi.