Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–0 Strumska Slava

Pirin Blagoevgrad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Strumska Slava

5/14/2021

Second League · Round 33Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad49%

×Draw26%

Strumska Slava25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin BlagoevgradExpected goals in this matchStrumska Slava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.99

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.50

Strumska Slava

0.99

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 113 away

1.53

creates per match

0.81

1.18

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.53

Strumska Slava

0.81

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.18

Strumska Slava

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Strumska Slava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw

75%

Pirin Blagoevgrad or Strumska Slava

74%

Draw or Strumska Slava

51%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

25%

Strumska Slava wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

78%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

44%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

19%

Strumska Slava 1+ goals

63%

Strumska Slava 2+ goals

26%

Strumska Slava 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

66%

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.53 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

49%

level

26%

Strumska Slava scores more

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff