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Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
H. Stengel 27' (pen)
J. Therkelsen 6'
P. Reinhardsen 31'
9/21/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Stromsgodset38%
×Draw22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.80

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.77
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.63

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.19scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
60%
Stromsgodset or Sarpsborg 08 FF
78%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
62%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
82%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
52%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
83%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
53%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
48%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.80 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
38%
level
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
A. SherSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · M
8.0

Match Events

6'
J. Therkelsen↳ E. Andersen
25'
Niklas Sandberg
26'
Lars Christopher VilsvikPenalty confirmed
27'
H. StengelPenalty
30'
Stefan Johansen
31'
P. Reinhardsen↳ S. Johansen
46'
A. Sanyang← N. Sandberg
49'
Nikolaj Möller
54'
Menno Koch
65'
E. Melkersen← E. Andersen
69'
Gustav Valsvik
74'
J. Inge Berget← S. Guðjohnsen
74'
A. Diop← V. Halvorsen
75'
H. Åsheim← E. Wichne
79'
Herman Stengel
85'
M. Håheim-Elveseter← S. Johansen

Possession

32%Stromsgodset

Shots

16Stromsgodset

Pass accuracy

46%Stromsgodset

Statistics

StromsgodsetSarpsborg
Overview
32%Possession68%
16Total Shots16
2.58Expected Goals (xG)2.30
4Corners7
15Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots16
6On Target6
4Off Target5
6Blocked5
12Inside Box9
4Outside Box7
Passing
32%Possession68%
266Total Passes596
192Accurate Passes504
72%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 in Eliteserien on September 21, 2024.

Goals: J. Therkelsen (6'), H. Stengel (27' pen), P. Reinhardsen (31').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.