Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–3 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stromsgodset

P. Reinhardsen 72'

G. Valsvik 89'

J. Therkelsen 63', 36'

5/26/2024

Eliteserien · Round 10Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF52%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.87

Stromsgodset

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

0.96

1.51

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Stromsgodset

2.16

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

75%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

48%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

30%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

85%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

56%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

68%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

52%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

25%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Kristian Bråtveit

Stromsgodset · G

8.9

Match Events

36'

J. Therkelsen↳ J. Taaje

45+1'

Sondre Ørjasæter

57'

Jonas Therkelsen

63'

J. Therkelsen↳ L. Tómasson

65'

P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne

65'

E. Andersen← Marko Farji

65'

M. Mehnert← E. Melkersen

69'

M. Andersen← H. Meister

72'

P. Reinhardsen↳ A. Sher

79'

S. Silalahi← E. Andersen

84'

Jeppe Andersen

84'

D. Gaye← L. Vilsvik

84'

J. Ekeland← J. Therkelsen

88'

S. Tibbling← S. Johansen

89'

G. Valsvik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgStromsgodset

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots15

1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.72

5Corners6

10Fouls6

Shots

22Total Shots15

10On Target6

8Off Target4

4Blocked5

13Inside Box14

9Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

551Total Passes311

485Accurate Passes245

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–3 Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 in Eliteserien on May 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Therkelsen (36', 63'), P. Reinhardsen (72'), G. Valsvik (89').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–3 Stromsgodset