Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–3 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stromsgodset

S. Gudjohnsen 90'

D. Karlsbakk 88'

J. Taaje 86'

F. Dahl 51'

M. Farji 19'

4/27/2025

Eliteserien · Round 4Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF52%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.87

Stromsgodset

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

0.96

1.51

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Stromsgodset

2.16

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

75%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

48%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

30%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

85%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

56%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

68%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

52%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

25%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Farji

Stromsgodset · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

M. Farji

51'

F. Dahl

63'

S. Gudjohnsen← F. Carstensen

63'

P. Reinhardsen← V. E. Halvorsen

63'

M. Haheim-Elveseter← H. Tangen

69'

N. Moller← L. Tomasson

79'

S. Westerlund← M. Farji

83'

N. Sandberg← E. Wichne

86'

J. Taaje

88'

D. Karlsbakk↳ N. Sandberg

89'

M. Vestergaard← S. Christiansen

90+2'

S. A. Marcello Silalahi← M. Mehnert

90'

S. Gudjohnsen↳ N. Sandberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgStromsgodset

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots11

2.01Expected Goals (xG)1.63

7Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target5

6Off Target5

7Blocked1

13Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

448Total Passes434

368Accurate Passes353

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 in Eliteserien on April 27, 2025.

Goals: M. Farji (19'), F. Dahl (51'), J. Taaje (86'), D. Karlsbakk (88'), S. Gudjohnsen (90').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset