Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
O. Enersen 78'
H. Stenevik 60'
G. Valsvik 23'
J. Braut Brunes 11', 4'
J. Soltvedt 17'
V. Torp 6'
7/9/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 13Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset39%
×Draw22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.77
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.73

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
61%
Stromsgodset or Sarpsborg 08 FF
78%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
61%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
83%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
53%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
26%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
83%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
53%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
49%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.73 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
39%
level
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
39%

Stromsgodset at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
V. TorpSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
J. Braut Brunes↳ H. Stenevik
6'
V. Torp↳ R. Lundqvist
11'
J. Braut Brunes
17'
J. Soltvedt↳ R. Lundqvist
20'
Marcus Mehnert
23'
G. Valsvik↳ L. Vilsvik
40'
S. Hanssen← F. Dahl
46'
J. Therkelsen← E. Danso
52'
Simon Tibbling
58'
Bjorn Utvik
60'
H. Stenevik
61'
S. Skålevik← S. Tibbling
66'
Mikkel Maigaard
71'
O. Enersen← T. Grøgaard
76'
P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne
78'
O. Enersen
82'
S. Christiansen← J. Andersen
82'
M. Andersen← R. Lundqvist
82'
M. Høyland← J. Soltvedt
84'
A. Thorsen← J. Braut Brunes
84'
M. Farji← M. Mehnert

Possession

Stromsgodset: 33Sarpsborg: 6733%Stromsgodset

Shots

Stromsgodset: 15Sarpsborg: 2315Stromsgodset

Pass accuracy

Stromsgodset: 62Sarpsborg: 8442%Stromsgodset

Statistics

StromsgodsetSarpsborg
Overview
33%Possession67%
15Total Shots23
2.00Expected Goals (xG)2.53
3Corners11
14Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots23
6On Target9
5Off Target10
4Blocked4
12Inside Box17
3Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
256Total Passes505
159Accurate Passes426
62%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 5-2 in Eliteserien on July 9, 2023.

Goals: J. Braut Brunes (4', 11'), V. Torp (6'), J. Soltvedt (17'), G. Valsvik (23'), H. Stenevik (60'), O. Enersen (78').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (67%) and registered 23 shots to 15.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.