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Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
CANC
16:00
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5/16/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 8Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Stromsgodset38%
×Draw22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
60%
Stromsgodset or Sarpsborg 08 FF
78%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
62%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
83%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
52%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
83%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
53%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
49%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
38%
level
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset face Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Stromsgodset hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stromsgodset host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.