Stromsgodset 3–2 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lillestrom

E. Melkersen 90+4', 6'

N. Möller 71'

T. Lehne Olsen 37' (pen)

R. Gabrielsen 5'

8/17/2024

Eliteserien · Round 19Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Stromsgodset43%

×Draw22%

Lillestrom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.64

Stromsgodset

1.86

Lillestrom

1.64

Stromsgodset creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

1.91

creates per match

1.52

1.76

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.91

Lillestrom

1.52

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.76

Lillestrom

1.81

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.58scores less

Lillestrom-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

66%

Stromsgodset or Lillestrom

78%

Draw or Lillestrom

57%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

23%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

49%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

56%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.81 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.91 + Lillestrom defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lillestrom attack 1.52 + Stromsgodset defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

43%

level

22%

Lillestrom scores more

34%

Stromsgodset at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Melkersen

Stromsgodset · F

9.0

Match Events

5'

R. Gabrielsen↳ T. Lehne Olsen

6'

Stephan Hagerup

6'

E. Melkersen↳ M. Mehnert

35'

Kristoffer Tønnessen

37'

T. Lehne OlsenPenalty

54'

Ylldren Ibrahimaj

65'

N. Möller← E. Andersen

70'

U. Charles← Vá

70'

G. Åsen← M. Karlsbakk

70'

V. Hoff← K. Tønnessen

71'

N. Möller↳ L. Vilsvik

72'

Nikolaj Möller

80'

Marcus Mehnert

83'

A. Karlin← E. Kitolano

83'

M. Bolly← T. Lehne Olsen

90+7'

K. Krasniqi← E. Melkersen

90+4'

E. Melkersen↳ L. Vilsvik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetLillestrom

Overview

45%Possession55%

25Total Shots16

3.92Expected Goals (xG)2.41

11Corners7

9Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots16

12On Target5

10Off Target6

3Blocked5

23Inside Box13

2Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

430Total Passes550

361Accurate Passes474

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–2 Lillestrom

Stromsgodset beat Lillestrom 3-2 in Eliteserien on August 17, 2024.

Goals: R. Gabrielsen (5'), E. Melkersen (6', 90+4'), T. Lehne Olsen (37' pen), N. Möller (71').

Lillestrom controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 25.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–2 Lillestrom