Lillestrom 3–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stromsgodset

M. Lundemo 47'

E. Kitolano 17'

T. Lehne Olsen 15' (pen)

L. Tómasson 32'

7/13/2024

Eliteserien · Round 14Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lillestrom53%

×Draw22%

Stromsgodset25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.24

Lillestrom

1.91

Stromsgodset

1.24

Lillestrom creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

1.65

creates per match

1.10

1.37

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.65

Stromsgodset

1.10

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.37

Stromsgodset

2.16

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

Stromsgodset+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

75%

Lillestrom or Stromsgodset

78%

Draw or Stromsgodset

47%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

30%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

85%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

57%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

30%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

68%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 22 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.65 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.91

Stromsgodset attack 1.10 + Lillestrom defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lillestrom scores more

53%

level

22%

Stromsgodset scores more

25%

Lillestrom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Lundemo

Lillestrom · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

T. Lehne OlsenPenalty

17'

E. Kitolano

24'

Logi Tomasson

32'

L. Tómasson↳ Marko Farji

40'

Marcus Mehnert

46'

H. Skogvold← T. Lehne Olsen

47'

M. Lundemo↳ U. Charles

57'

S. Westerlund← F. Dahl

57'

E. Andersen← Marko Farji

64'

Felix Vá

73'

S. Silalahi← E. Melkersen

73'

B. Sørmo← L. Tómasson

79'

A. Røssing-Lelesiit← Vá

83'

S. Foss← R. Gabrielsen

89'

J. Ekeland← L. Vilsvik

90+2'

Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStromsgodset

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots9

10Corners2

7Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots9

10On Target2

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

8Inside Box4

11Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

465Total Passes390

397Accurate Passes316

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset

Lillestrom beat Stromsgodset 3-1 in Eliteserien on July 13, 2024.

Goals: T. Lehne Olsen (15' pen), E. Kitolano (17'), L. Tómasson (32'), M. Lundemo (47').

Lillestrom controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset