Lillestrom 4–4 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.85

Lillestrom

2.66

Stromsgodset

1.85

Lillestrom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

2.88

creates per match

1.71

2.00

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Lillestrom

2.88

Stromsgodset

1.71

allows per match

Lillestrom

2.00

Stromsgodset

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

73%

Lillestrom or Stromsgodset

81%

Draw or Stromsgodset

45%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

35%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

93%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

74%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

49%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

67%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 2.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 2.88 + Stromsgodset defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.66

Stromsgodset attack 1.71 + Lillestrom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lillestrom scores more

55%

level

19%

Stromsgodset scores more

27%

Lillestrom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

15'

37'

38'

48'

56'

75'

90'

M. MehnertPenalty

Lillestrom

Stromsgodset

1

26

5

71

24

84

8

99

⚽

Ampofo

10

Stengel

80

⚽

Wikheim

9

Melkersen

1

Hagerup

2

⚽

5

28

26

6

24

14

⚽

Nyheim

19

Jebara

9

⚽

Arierhi

15

⚽

Drammeh

Manager: Hans Odegaard

Lillestrom substitutes

DahlbergOttesenSvenningsenKarlsbakkVaWaehlerReshaneBjornsengenKristiansen

Manager: Dag-Eilev Fagermo

Stromsgodset substitutes

12Lampinen-Skaug14Enersen15Heredia-Randen6Silalahi77Mehnert16Ardraa39Spiten11Pingel2BjornstadAndresen

Friendlies Clubs: Lillestrom 4–4 Stromsgodset

Lillestrom and Stromsgodset drew 4-4 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.

Goals: G. Nyheim (10'), L. Ranger (15'), G. Wikheim (37'), J. Ampofo (38'), S. Drammeh (48'), M. Spiten (56'), K. Arierhi (75'), M. Mehnert (90' pen).

Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Lillestrom 4–4 Stromsgodset