Stromsgodset 3–0 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lillestrom

L. Salvesen 90+7'

K. Tokstad 76'

I. Jack 53'

6/26/2022

Eliteserien · Round 11Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Stromsgodset41%

×Draw22%

Lillestrom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.68

Stromsgodset

1.79

Lillestrom

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

1.82

creates per match

1.52

1.83

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Lillestrom

1.52

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Lillestrom

1.76

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Lillestrom-0.40scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

63%

Stromsgodset or Lillestrom

78%

Draw or Lillestrom

59%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

22%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

53%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

26%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

50%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

53%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Lillestrom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lillestrom attack 1.52 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

41%

level

22%

Lillestrom scores more

37%

Stromsgodset at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

G. Valsvik

Stromsgodset · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

13'

Vetle Winger Dragsnes

22'

Espen Bjornsen Garnas

30'

Igoh Ogbu

53'

I. Jack↳ H. Stengel

64'

K. Kairinen← E. Garnås

64'

F. Holst← L. Ranger

65'

Frederik Holst

67'

A. Thorsen← I. Jack

74'

P. Helland← Y. Ibrahimaj

74'

H. Friðjónsson← A. Adams

75'

N. Gunnarsson← T. Grøgaard

76'

K. Tokstad

81'

Viljar Myhra

81'

F. Friday← K. Tokstad

82'

Gjermund Åsen

87'

T. Svendsen← M. Knudsen

90+3'

Herman Stengel

90+7'

L. Salvesen↳ T. Gulliksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetLillestrom

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots12

7Corners8

11Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots12

5On Target1

6Off Target6

9Blocked5

10Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

398Total Passes357

321Accurate Passes285

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom

Stromsgodset beat Lillestrom 3-0 in Eliteserien on June 26, 2022.

Goals: I. Jack (53'), K. Tokstad (76'), L. Salvesen (90+7').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom