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Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
CANC
00:00
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
8/7/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 18Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Stromsgodset42%
×Draw22%
Lillestrom36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.81
Lillestrom
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Lillestrom
1.52

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.81
Lillestrom
1.81

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less
Lillestrom-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
64%
Stromsgodset or Lillestrom
78%
Draw or Lillestrom
58%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
22%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
84%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
54%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
27%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
81%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
50%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
54%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.81 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Lillestrom defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lillestrom attack 1.52 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
42%
level
22%
Lillestrom scores more
36%

Stromsgodset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stromsgodset host Lillestrom

August 7, 2021: Stromsgodset take on Lillestrom in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stromsgodset host Lillestrom at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.