Stromsgodset 2–2 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lillestrom

M. Abdellaoue 52', 20'

F. Kippe 89'

T. Olsen 31'

11/11/2018

Eliteserien · Round 29Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Stromsgodset42%

×Draw22%

Lillestrom36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.65

Stromsgodset

1.80

Lillestrom

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

1.82

creates per match

1.47

1.83

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Lillestrom

1.47

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Lillestrom

1.78

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Lillestrom-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

64%

Stromsgodset or Lillestrom

78%

Draw or Lillestrom

58%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

22%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

54%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

27%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

49%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

54%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.78 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Lillestrom defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lillestrom attack 1.47 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

42%

level

22%

Lillestrom scores more

36%

Stromsgodset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Abdellaoue

Stromsgodset · F

8.1

Match Events

20'

M. Abdellaoue

31'

T. Olsen↳ S. Rafn

46'

L. Sætra← M. Hamoud

52'

M. Abdellaoue↳ J. Hove

78'

F. Krogstad← K. Ødemarksbakken

78'

E. Brenden← A. Smárason

81'

Erik Brenden

87'

S. Mikalsen← E. Sandberg

89'

M. Ovenstad← J. Hove

89'

F. Kippe↳ E. Knudtzon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetLillestrom

Overview

54%Possession46%

5Total Shots13

3Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target6

1Off Target4

2Blocked3

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

503Total Passes428

386Accurate Passes322

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–2 Lillestrom

Stromsgodset and Lillestrom drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on November 11, 2018.

Goals: M. Abdellaoue (20', 52'), T. Olsen (31'), F. Kippe (89').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 13.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–2 Lillestrom