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Stromsgodset vs Haugesund — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
15:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
10/18/20261. Division1. Division · Round 27Marienlyst Stadion
Big match
51%
Stromsgodset
model favours
51%18%30%

Haugesund have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
82%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset51%
×Draw18%
Haugesund30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.76
Haugesund
2.13

Stromsgodset creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Haugesund
3.13

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Haugesund
2.38

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 86Under: 1486%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 82No: 1882%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
70%
Stromsgodset or Haugesund
82%
Draw or Haugesund
49%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
33%
Haugesund wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
94%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
76%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
51%
Haugesund 1+ goals
88%
Haugesund 2+ goals
63%
Haugesund 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
63%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Haugesund away — creates 3.13, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Haugesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.76

Haugesund attack 3.13 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
51%
level
18%
Haugesund scores more
30%

Stromsgodset at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 82% over 2.5)
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 82% of Haugesund’s matches
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
Haugesund
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stromsgodset host Haugesund

October 18, 2026: Stromsgodset take on Haugesund in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stromsgodset host Haugesund at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.