Haugesund 0–5 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Stromsgodset

M. Farji 90', 48'

N. Moller 79' (pen)

K. Krasniqi 25'

J. Therkelsen 15'

4/6/2025

Eliteserien · Round 2Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Haugesund45%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.30

Haugesund

1.63

Stromsgodset

1.30

Haugesund creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.11

creates per match

1.07

1.53

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Haugesund

1.11

Stromsgodset

1.07

allows per match

Haugesund

1.53

Stromsgodset

2.14

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.25scores less

Stromsgodset+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

69%

Haugesund or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

55%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

23%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

80%

Haugesund 2+ goals

48%

Haugesund 3+ goals

22%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

73%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

37%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

60%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.11 + Stromsgodset defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stromsgodset attack 1.07 + Haugesund defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Haugesund scores more

45%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

31%

Haugesund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Farji

Stromsgodset · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

J. Therkelsen↳ H. Stengel

25'

K. Krasniqi↳ M. Mehnert

33'

Logi Tomasson

42'

T. Nyhammer← P. Bizoza

48'

M. Farji↳ L. Vilsvik

56'

E. Rohd← I. Camara

56'

I. Seone← R. Espejord

56'

F. Dahl← L. Tomasson

65'

M. Samuelsen← S. Innvaer

65'

B. Leite← C. Niyukuri

70'

Elias Hoff Melkersen

73'

B. Sormo← L. Vilsvik

73'

N. Moller← E. Melkersen

73'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa← H. Stengel

78'

Madiodio Dia

79'

N. MollerPenalty

84'

A. Heredia-Randen← K. Krasniqi

90'

M. Farji↳ F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundStromsgodset

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots23

0.86Expected Goals (xG)3.46

4Corners10

8Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots23

3On Target9

8Off Target5

1Blocked9

6Inside Box15

6Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

432Total Passes378

349Accurate Passes308

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1