Stromsgodset 2–0 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Haugesund

E. Melkersen 53'

A. Bærtelsen 45+1' (OG)

5/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 9Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Stromsgodset51%

×Draw21%

Haugesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.46

Stromsgodset

2.07

Haugesund

1.46

Stromsgodset creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

1.88

creates per match

1.14

1.77

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.88

Haugesund

1.14

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Haugesund

2.26

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.58scores less

Haugesund-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

73%

Stromsgodset or Haugesund

79%

Draw or Haugesund

49%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

30%

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

87%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

61%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

34%

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

65%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.26 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.88 + Haugesund defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.07

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

51%

level

21%

Haugesund scores more

27%

Stromsgodset at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Eskesen

Haugesund · M

8.2

Match Events

45+1'

A. BærtelsenOwn goal

46'

S. Westerlund← F. Dahl

53'

E. Melkersen↳ L. Tómasson

57'

A. Lúðvíksson← Bruno Leite

57'

M. Hope← C. Niyukuri

62'

J. Therkelsen← E. Andersen

68'

S. Innvær← M. Konradsen

68'

T. Nyhammer← M. Sauer

75'

B. Sørmo← J. Taaje

75'

M. Mehnert← E. Melkersen

78'

L. Séoné← S. Diarra

86'

D. Gaye← L. Vilsvik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetHaugesund

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots16

1.61Expected Goals (xG)2.12

8Corners5

6Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots16

4On Target4

7Off Target9

4Blocked3

12Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

540Total Passes467

445Accurate Passes397

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls9

0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–0 Haugesund

Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 2-0 in Eliteserien on May 20, 2024.

Goals: A. Bærtelsen (45+1' o.g.), E. Melkersen (53').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–0 Haugesund