Stromsgodset 1–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Haugesund

T. Grøgaard 45+3'

B. Njie 49'

S. Reese 25'

10/29/2022

Eliteserien · Round 28Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Stromsgodset52%

×Draw21%

Haugesund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.44

Stromsgodset

2.09

Haugesund

1.44

Stromsgodset creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.82

creates per match

1.07

1.81

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Haugesund

2.36

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

74%

Stromsgodset or Haugesund

79%

Draw or Haugesund

48%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

31%

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

88%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

62%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

34%

Haugesund 1+ goals

76%

Haugesund 2+ goals

42%

Haugesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

66%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.09

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

52%

level

21%

Haugesund scores more

26%

Stromsgodset at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Selvik

Haugesund · G

10.0

Match Events

25'

S. Reese↳ J. Eskesen

32'

Herman Stengel

35'

Johan Hove

45+3'

T. Grøgaard↳ H. Stengel

49'

B. Njie↳ T. Pedersen

60'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

60'

T. Gulliksen← O. Enersen

64'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

72'

M. Sande← J. Eskesen

76'

Søren Reese

77'

Christos Zafeiris

84'

M. Samuelsen← A. Søderlund

85'

N. Walstad← B. Njie

89'

Bruno Leite← C. Zafeiris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetHaugesund

Overview

60%Possession40%

28Total Shots12

11Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

28Total Shots12

14On Target7

8Off Target3

6Blocked2

24Inside Box10

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

501Total Passes348

411Accurate Passes252

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves13

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3