Stripfing 0–2 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Stripfing

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

First Vienna

B. Zimmermann 37'

M. Djuricin 20'

8/1/2025

League #219 · Round 1Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stripfing29%

×Draw21%

First Vienna50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StripfingExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.06

Stripfing

1.54

First Vienna

2.06

First Vienna creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.53

2.60

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Stripfing

1.40

First Vienna

1.53

allows per match

Stripfing

2.60

First Vienna

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stripfing+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stripfing ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stripfing or draw

50%

Stripfing or First Vienna

79%

Draw or First Vienna

71%

Winning margin

Stripfing wins by 2+

13%

First Vienna wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Stripfing 1+ goals

79%

Stripfing 2+ goals

45%

Stripfing 3+ goals

20%

First Vienna 1+ goals

87%

First Vienna 2+ goals

61%

First Vienna 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Stripfing (draw refunded)

37%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stripfing at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

First Vienna away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stripfing attack 1.40 + First Vienna defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

First Vienna attack 1.53 + Stripfing defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stripfing scores more

29%

level

21%

First Vienna scores more

50%

First Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Djuricin↳ B. Rosenberger

29'

D. Ungar

36'

Gabryel

37'

B. Zimmermann↳ B. Rosenberger

45+2'

B. Zimmermann

46'

Y. Beaka← J. Poldrugac

46'

N. Steiner← K. Abazovic

60'

S. Furtlehner← L. Stockl

60'

C. Knasmullner← Gabryel

69'

L. Edelhofer← M. Djuricin

73'

M. Spasic← D. Kreiker

76'

P. Schmidt← B. Zimmermann

79'

S. Furtlehner

88'

Y. Beaka

89'

D. Titkov← A. Abdijanovic

Stripfing

First

1

Unger

4

Szerencsi

10

⚽

▼

Djuricin

36

Nnamdi

17

A

Rosenberg

25

Bauer

28

Stratznig

18

⚽

▼

Zimmerman

8

Luxbacher

66

Ungar

9

▼

Abdijanov

13

Uberbache

18

▼

Stockl

24

▼

37

14

5

47

▼

Kreiker

27

Kerschbau

20

▼

Gabryel

21

Pecirep

7

▼

Poldrugac

46'▲Y. Beaka←▼J. Poldrugac

46'▲N. Steiner←▼K. Abazovic

60'▲S. Furtlehner←▼L. Stockl

60'▲C. Knasmullner←▼Gabryel

73'▲M. Spasic←▼D. Kreiker

Stripfing substitutes

12Basic49Beaka23Furtlehner10Knasmullner17Saribekyan3Spasic66Steiner

Manager: Johann Kleer

69'▲L. Edelhofer←▼M. Djuricin

76'▲P. Schmidt←▼B. Zimmermann

89'▲D. Titkov←▼A. Abdijanovic

First Vienna substitutes

21Diomande77Edelhofer41Giuliani19Alozie5Pistrol16Schmidt34Titkov