First Vienna 3–1 Stripfing: Result & Stats

First Vienna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Stripfing

L. Edelhofer 45'

C. Ramsebner 38' (OG)

B. Zimmermann 8'

W. Vorsager 69'

2/28/2025

League #219 · Round 18Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

First Vienna50%

×Draw22%

Stripfing28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First ViennaExpected goals in this matchStripfing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.43

First Vienna

1.96

Stripfing

1.43

First Vienna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.61

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

First Vienna

1.67

Stripfing

1.25

allows per match

First Vienna

1.61

Stripfing

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par

Stripfing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Stripfing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw

72%

First Vienna or Stripfing

78%

Draw or Stripfing

50%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+

28%

Stripfing wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals

86%

First Vienna 2+ goals

58%

First Vienna 3+ goals

31%

Stripfing 1+ goals

76%

Stripfing 2+ goals

42%

Stripfing 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)

64%

Stripfing (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Stripfing away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 1.67 + Stripfing defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stripfing attack 1.25 + First Vienna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

First Vienna scores more

50%

level

22%

Stripfing scores more

28%

First Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

B. Zimmermann↳ L. Edelhofer

21'

W. Vorsager

23'

G. Davies

31'

L. Pazourek

38'

C. RamsebnerOwn goal

42'

S. Furtlehner

45'

L. Edelhofer

46'

J. Steiger← P. Maybach

46'

D. Pecirep← D. Kreiker

52'

P. Ochs

62'

S. Šaljić← M. Hausjell

66'

N. Steiner← K. Nnamdi

66'

G. Diomandé← D. Ungar

69'

W. Vorsager↳ G. Davies

72'

P. Schmidt← L. Edelhofer

75'

R. Sutterlüty← G. Davies

81'

T. Altersberger← L. Pazourek

84'

S. Furtlehner

84'

S. Furtlehner

89'

R. Dilek← B. Zimmermann

90+1'

S. Saljic

First

Stripfing

33

Kretschme

15

🥅

3

23

27

8

A

▼

Davies

39

⚽

Vorsager

14

▼

Pazourek

47

▼

Kreiker

66

▼

Maybach

19

▼

1

13

25

11

66

▼

Ungar

28

Stratznig

36

▼

Nnamdi

8

Luxbacher

10

Ochs

77

⚽A

▼

Edelhofer

18

⚽

▼

Zimmerman

Manager: M. Sütcü

66'▲N. Steiner←▼K. Nnamdi

66'▲G. Diomandé←▼D. Ungar

72'▲P. Schmidt←▼L. Edelhofer

89'▲R. Dilek←▼B. Zimmermann

First Vienna substitutes

5Steiner21Diomandé16Schmidt59Dilek41Giuliani34Titkov9Peham

Manager: E. Sulimani

46'▲J. Steiger←▼P. Maybach

46'▲D. Pecirep←▼D. Kreiker

62'▲S. Šaljić←▼M. Hausjell

75'▲R. Sutterlüty←▼G. Davies

81'▲T. Altersberger←▼L. Pazourek

Stripfing substitutes

11Steiger21Pecirep9Šaljić17Sutterlüty18Altersberger4Radonjić13Jusić

Match Recap: First Vienna vs Stripfing

First Vienna beat Stripfing 3-1 in League #219 on February 28, 2025.

Goals: B. Zimmermann (8'), C. Ramsebner (38' o.g.), L. Edelhofer (45'), W. Vorsager (69').

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.

First Vienna vs Stripfing — League #219 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: First Vienna vs Stripfing