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First Vienna vs Stripfing — League #219 2026

First Vienna
First Vienna
CANC
17:00
Stripfing
Stripfing
12/5/2025League #219League #219 · Round 16Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

First Vienna50%
×Draw22%
Stripfing28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
1.96
Stripfing
1.43

First Vienna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

First Vienna
1.67
Stripfing
1.25

allows per match

First Vienna
1.61
Stripfing
2.25

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
Stripfing+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Stripfing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
72%
First Vienna or Stripfing
78%
Draw or Stripfing
50%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
28%
Stripfing wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
86%
First Vienna 2+ goals
58%
First Vienna 3+ goals
31%
Stripfing 1+ goals
76%
Stripfing 2+ goals
42%
Stripfing 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
64%
Stripfing (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Stripfing away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 1.67 + Stripfing defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stripfing attack 1.25 + First Vienna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

First Vienna scores more
50%
level
22%
Stripfing scores more
28%

First Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Vienna face Stripfing (League #219)

League #219 returns with First Vienna hosting Stripfing. Match starts December 5, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

First Vienna host Stripfing at Naturarena Hohe Warte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.