Stripfing 3–3 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Stripfing

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

First Vienna

Z. Žiger 90+4'

P. Eler 66' (pen)

A. Sahintürk 39'

M. Konrad 86'

L. Edelhofer 57'

C. Bumbic 45+2'

7/30/2021

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 1Sportplatz Stripfing SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stripfing44%

×Draw24%

First Vienna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StripfingExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.32

Stripfing

1.61

First Vienna

1.32

Stripfing creates 22% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

2.37

creates per match

1.96

0.68

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Stripfing

2.37

First Vienna

1.96

allows per match

Stripfing

0.68

First Vienna

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stripfing+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stripfing ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stripfing or draw

69%

Stripfing or First Vienna

76%

Draw or First Vienna

56%

Winning margin

Stripfing wins by 2+

23%

First Vienna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stripfing 1+ goals

80%

Stripfing 2+ goals

48%

Stripfing 3+ goals

22%

First Vienna 1+ goals

73%

First Vienna 2+ goals

38%

First Vienna 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stripfing (draw refunded)

58%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stripfing at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.68 · 41 matches

First Vienna away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stripfing attack 2.37 + First Vienna defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

First Vienna attack 1.96 + Stripfing defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stripfing scores more

44%

level

24%

First Vienna scores more

31%

Stripfing at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stripfing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Sahintürk

45+2'

C. Bumbic

46'

M. Wostry← T. Kreuzhuber

56'

D. Stradiņš← A. Sahintürk

57'

L. Edelhofer

66'

P. ElerPenalty

70'

O. Fotr← D. Markl

70'

M. Szotkowski← L. Edelhofer

70'

O. Bacher← B. Luxbacher

79'

R. Janjiš← R. Buljić

79'

T. Weber← M. Balzer

86'

M. Konrad

87'

S. Schimandl← M. Konrad

90+4'

Z. Žiger

Stripfing

First

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Konrad

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sahintürk

▼

Markl

Manager: J. Kleer

56'▲D. Stradiņš←▼A. Sahintürk

70'▲O. Fotr←▼D. Markl

79'▲R. Janjiš←▼R. Buljić

79'▲T. Weber←▼M. Balzer

Stripfing substitutes

StradiņšFotrJanjišWeberGrozdićBayram

Manager: A. Zellhofer

46'▲M. Wostry←▼T. Kreuzhuber

70'▲M. Szotkowski←▼L. Edelhofer

70'▲O. Bacher←▼B. Luxbacher

87'▲S. Schimandl←▼M. Konrad

First Vienna substitutes

WostrySzotkowskiBacherSchimandlKazanJusic