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Stranraer vs Queen of the South — League #182 2026

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
S. Turay 61'
L. Smith 89'
10/11/2025League #182League #182 · League Round - Group AStair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stranraer46%
×Draw26%
Queen of the South29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.50
Queen of the South
1.13

Stranraer creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25

allows per match

Stranraer
1.00
Queen of the South
1.75

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
71%
Stranraer or Queen of the South
74%
Draw or Queen of the South
54%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
23%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
78%
Stranraer 2+ goals
44%
Stranraer 3+ goals
19%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
68%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
31%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
62%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.25 + Queen of the South defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Queen of the South attack 1.25 + Stranraer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stranraer scores more
46%
level
26%
Queen of the South scores more
29%

Stranraer at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
S. Turay
89'
L. Smith
Stranraer
Queen
Chris Aitken
Manager: Chris Aitken
Peter Murphy
Manager: Peter Murphy

Match Recap: Stranraer vs Queen of the South

Stranraer and Queen of the South drew 1-1 in League #182 on October 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Turay (61'), L. Smith (89').

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.