Stranraer 1–0 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Stranraer

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Queen of the South

A. Quigg 59'

7/26/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stranraer18%

×Draw20%

Queen of the South63%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.24

Stranraer

1.11

Queen of the South

2.24

Queen of the South creates 102% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.13

creates per match

1.60

2.88

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Stranraer

1.13

Queen of the South

1.60

allows per match

Stranraer

2.88

Queen of the South

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

37%

Stranraer or Queen of the South

80%

Draw or Queen of the South

82%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

7%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

67%

Stranraer 2+ goals

30%

Stranraer 3+ goals

10%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

89%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

65%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

22%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.13 + Queen of the South defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Queen of the South attack 1.60 + Stranraer defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stranraer scores more

18%

level

20%

Queen of the South scores more

63%

Queen of the South at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

A. Quigg

48'

K. Guthrie

59'

A. Quigg↳ F. Ecrepont

61'

R. Stewart

66'

T. Charters← M. Hewitt

66'

B. Luissint← J. Stott

67'

S. Turay← R. Edgar

69'

K. McKnight← A. Quigg

76'

M. Douglas← K. Kennedy

76'

80'

83'

85'

88'

88'

90+6'

90+6'

90+6'

Stranraer

Queen

1

Stewart

2

▼

Hewitt

15

Rogerson

12

Penman

21

▼

4

7

14

28

▼

Guthrie

18

▼

Stott

10

▼

1

14

5

4

3

A

Ecrepont

2

▼

Stuart

23

Hunter

8

⚽

▼

Quigg

17

McManus

11

Russell

25

▼

Edgar

Manager: Chris Aitken

67'▲S. Turay←▼R. Edgar

69'▲K. McKnight←▼A. Quigg

80'▲T. Sharp←▼J. Stuart

Stranraer substitutes

13Henderson6Docherty10McKnight16Ellis18Hilferty19Turay20Sharp

Manager: Peter Michael Murphy

66'▲T. Charters←▼M. Hewitt

66'▲B. Luissint←▼J. Stott

76'▲M. Douglas←▼K. Kennedy

76'▲C. Burke←▼K. Guthrie

83'▲H. McLinden←▼E. Ross

Queen of the South substitutes

26Thomson3Charters5Douglas8Luissint24McLinden25Hall27Chapman30Burke