Queen of the South 5–3 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Stranraer

S. Dobbie 87', 42'

A. Stirling 64'

L. Dykes 44'

G. Harkins 41'

K. Turner 80'

L. Donnelly 9'

C. McGowan 4'

7/14/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Palmerston Park (Dumfries)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South62%

×Draw19%

Stranraer18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.16

Queen of the South

2.27

Stranraer

1.16

Queen of the South creates 96% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.82

1.50

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Queen of the South

2.00

Stranraer

0.82

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.50

Stranraer

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Stranraer →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

82%

Queen of the South or Stranraer

81%

Draw or Stranraer

38%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

39%

Stranraer wins by 2+

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

90%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

66%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

39%

Stranraer 1+ goals

69%

Stranraer 2+ goals

32%

Stranraer 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

77%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + Stranraer defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.27

Stranraer attack 0.82 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Queen of the South scores more

62%

level

19%

Stranraer scores more

18%

Queen of the South at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

C. McGowan↳ I. Layne

L. Donnelly

41'

G. Harkins↳ S. Dobbie

42'

S. Dobbie↳ G. Harkins

44'

L. Dykes↳ G. Harkins

46'

J. Todd← K. Jacobs

64'

A. Stirling↳ S. Mercer

72'

M. Ashmore← L. Donnelly

72'

C. Elliott← I. Layne

79'

S. Lidington← M. Lamont

80'

K. Turner↳ M. Ashmore

87'

S. Dobbie↳ A. Stirling

90'

C. Semple← A. Stirling

90'

D. Tremble← L. Dykes

Queen

Stranraer

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽A

⚽A

▼

▼

⚽2A

⚽

▼

Dykes

Manager: G. Naysmith

46'▲J. Todd←▼K. Jacobs

90'▲C. Semple←▼A. Stirling

90'▲D. Tremble←▼L. Dykes

Queen of the South substitutes

10Todd12Semple18Tremble24Harvey16Watson1Martin17Murray

Manager: S. Farrell

72'▲M. Ashmore←▼L. Donnelly

72'▲C. Elliott←▼I. Layne

79'▲S. Lidington←▼M. Lamont

Stranraer substitutes

16Ashmore14Elliott15Lidington5Brownlie13Avci

League Cup: Queen of the South 5–3 Stranraer

Queen of the South beat Stranraer 5-3 in League Cup on July 14, 2018.

Goals: C. McGowan (4'), L. Donnelly (9'), G. Harkins (41'), S. Dobbie (42', 87'), L. Dykes (44'), A. Stirling (64'), K. Turner (80').

The match was played at Palmerston Park (Dumfries).

Queen of the South vs Stranraer — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Queen of the South 5–3 Stranraer