Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Randers Freja vs Lindholm — Denmark Series - Group 3 2013

Randers Freja
Randers Freja
FT
1 – 1
Lindholm
Lindholm
8/10/2013Denmark Series - Group 3Denmark Series - Group 3 · Round 1Kunstgræsbanen AutoC Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Randers Freja51%
×Draw21%
Lindholm28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers Freja
2.16
Lindholm
1.57

Randers Freja creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Randers Freja
2.57
Lindholm
2.00

allows per match

Randers Freja
1.14
Lindholm
1.75

finishing

Randers Freja+0.00on par
Lindholm+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers Freja ↓

Lindholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Randers Freja or draw
72%
Randers Freja or Lindholm
79%
Draw or Lindholm
49%

Winning margin

Randers Freja wins by 2+
30%
Lindholm wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Randers Freja 1+ goals
88%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
63%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
36%
Lindholm 1+ goals
79%
Lindholm 2+ goals
46%
Lindholm 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Randers Freja (draw refunded)
64%
Lindholm (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers Freja at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Lindholm away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers Freja attack 2.57 + Lindholm defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Lindholm attack 2.00 + Randers Freja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Randers Freja scores more
51%
level
21%
Lindholm scores more
28%

Randers Freja at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Randers Freja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Randers Freja vs Lindholm

Randers Freja and Lindholm drew 1-1 in Denmark Series - Group 3 on August 10, 2013.

The match was played at Kunstgræsbanen AutoC Park Randers in Randers.