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Lindholm vs Randers Freja — League #126 2026

Lindholm
Lindholm
FT
1 – 1
Randers Freja
Randers Freja
6/5/2013League #126League #126 · Round 26Lindholm Høje Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lindholm41%
×Draw25%
Randers Freja34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lindholm
1.52
Randers Freja
1.35

Lindholm creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lindholm
0.83
Randers Freja
1.71

allows per match

Lindholm
1.00
Randers Freja
2.21

finishing

Lindholm+0.00on par
Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lindholm ↓

Randers Freja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lindholm or draw
66%
Lindholm or Randers Freja
75%
Draw or Randers Freja
59%

Winning margin

Lindholm wins by 2+
20%
Randers Freja wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lindholm 1+ goals
78%
Lindholm 2+ goals
45%
Lindholm 3+ goals
20%
Randers Freja 1+ goals
74%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
39%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lindholm (draw refunded)
55%
Randers Freja (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lindholm at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lindholm attack 0.83 + Randers Freja defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Randers Freja attack 1.71 + Lindholm defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lindholm scores more
41%
level
25%
Randers Freja scores more
34%

Lindholm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lindholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lindholm vs Randers Freja

Lindholm and Randers Freja drew 1-1 in League #126 on June 5, 2013.

The match was played at Lindholm Høje Stadion.