Lindholm 1–0 Randers Freja: Result & Stats

Lindholm

FT

1 – 0

Randers Freja

3/29/2014

League #126 · Round 14Lindholm Høje Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lindholm41%

×Draw25%

Randers Freja34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LindholmExpected goals in this matchRanders Freja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.35

Lindholm

1.52

Randers Freja

1.35

Lindholm creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.83

creates per match

1.71

1.00

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Lindholm

0.83

Randers Freja

1.71

allows per match

Lindholm

1.00

Randers Freja

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lindholm+0.00on par

Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lindholm ↓

Randers Freja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lindholm or draw

66%

Lindholm or Randers Freja

75%

Draw or Randers Freja

59%

Winning margin

Lindholm wins by 2+

20%

Randers Freja wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lindholm 1+ goals

78%

Lindholm 2+ goals

45%

Lindholm 3+ goals

20%

Randers Freja 1+ goals

74%

Randers Freja 2+ goals

39%

Randers Freja 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lindholm (draw refunded)

55%

Randers Freja (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lindholm at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lindholm attack 0.83 + Randers Freja defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Randers Freja attack 1.71 + Lindholm defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lindholm scores more

41%

level

25%

Randers Freja scores more

34%

Lindholm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lindholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff