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Stomil Olsztyn vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
5/12/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn46%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Grudziądz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.54
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.16

Stomil Olsztyn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.26

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.58

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
71%
Stomil Olsztyn or Olimpia Grudziądz
75%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
54%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
23%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
79%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
45%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
20%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
69%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
32%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
62%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
46%
level
25%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
29%

Stomil Olsztyn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 Olimpia Grudziądz

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in II Liga - East on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.