Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

10/6/2019

I Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz41%

×Draw26%

Stomil Olsztyn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.26

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.44

Stomil Olsztyn

1.26

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.53

creates per match

0.88

1.65

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.53

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.65

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

67%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Stomil Olsztyn

74%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

59%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

20%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

76%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

42%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

18%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

72%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

36%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

56%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.53 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

41%

level

26%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

33%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

I Liga: Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn