Olimpia Grudziądz 3–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

10/28/2023

II Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz40%

×Draw27%

Stomil Olsztyn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.14

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.29

Stomil Olsztyn

1.14

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

1.34

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Stomil Olsztyn

0.94

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Stomil Olsztyn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

67%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Stomil Olsztyn

73%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

60%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

18%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

72%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

37%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

14%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

68%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

32%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

55%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

40%

level

27%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

33%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff