Stomil Olsztyn 0–3 Legia Warszawa II

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Legia Warszawa II

9/20/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn29%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.82

Stomil Olsztyn

1.36

Legia Warszawa II

1.82

Legia Warszawa II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

1.41

creates per match

1.77

1.88

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.41

Legia Warszawa II

1.77

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.88

Legia Warszawa II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Legia Warszawa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

52%

Stomil Olsztyn or Legia Warszawa II

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa II

71%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

74%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

39%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

16%

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

84%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

54%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

37%

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

29%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa II scores more

48%

Legia Warszawa II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff