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Legia Warszawa II vs Stomil Olsztyn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Legia Warszawa II49%
×Draw25%
Stomil Olsztyn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
1.58
Stomil Olsztyn
1.06

Legia Warszawa II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.56
Stomil Olsztyn
0.80

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.33
Stomil Olsztyn
1.60

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
75%
Legia Warszawa II or Stomil Olsztyn
75%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
51%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
26%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
79%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
47%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
21%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
65%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
29%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
66%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.56 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.80 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
49%
level
25%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
25%

Legia Warszawa II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa II vs Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Legia Warszawa II 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.