Legia Warszawa II 1–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Legia Warszawa II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stomil Olsztyn

4/17/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legia Warszawa II53%

×Draw22%

Stomil Olsztyn24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa IIExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.21

Legia Warszawa II

1.90

Stomil Olsztyn

1.21

Legia Warszawa II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

2.40

creates per match

1.18

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II

2.40

Stomil Olsztyn

1.18

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II

1.24

Stomil Olsztyn

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw

76%

Legia Warszawa II or Stomil Olsztyn

78%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

47%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

31%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

85%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

56%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

29%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

70%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

34%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

69%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more

53%

level

22%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

24%

Legia Warszawa II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff