Stomil Olsztyn 1–0 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

M. Mętlicki 82'

10/27/2018

I Liga · Round 16Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn51%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.01

Stomil Olsztyn

1.61

Garbarnia Kraków

1.01

Stomil Olsztyn creates 59% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

0.71

1.31

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.04

Garbarnia Kraków

0.71

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

Garbarnia Kraków

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

76%

Stomil Olsztyn or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

49%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

27%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

80%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

48%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

22%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

64%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

27%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

68%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.61

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

51%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

24%

Stomil Olsztyn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Wrześniewski← M. Czekaj

56'

G. Lech← M. Stromecki

56'

G. Gawle← Ł. Pietras

75'

M. Mętlicki← R. Śledź

78'

Piotr Głowacki← Pawel Glowacki

81'

M. Węsierski← J. Wróbel

82'

M. Mętlicki

Stomil

Garbarnia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Zajaczkowski

56'▲G. Lech←▼M. Stromecki

75'▲M. Mętlicki←▼R. Śledź

78'▲Piotr Głowacki←▼Pawel Glowacki

Stomil Olsztyn substitutes

LechMętlickiGłowacki

Manager: B. Pietrzak

14'▲M. Wrześniewski←▼M. Czekaj

56'▲G. Gawle←▼Ł. Pietras

81'▲M. Węsierski←▼J. Wróbel

Garbarnia Kraków substitutes

WrześniewskiGawleWęsierski

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Garbarnia Kraków

Stomil Olsztyn beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on October 27, 2018.

Goals: M. Mętlicki (82').

The match was played at Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn).

Stomil Olsztyn vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Garbarnia Kraków