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Garbarnia Kraków vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
G. Lech 64' (pen), 57'
5/11/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków27%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.91
Stomil Olsztyn
1.24

Stomil Olsztyn creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
56%
Garbarnia Kraków or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
73%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
60%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
71%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
35%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
38%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.91

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
27%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
44%

Stomil Olsztyn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
G. Lech
59'
K. Kalemba
64'
G. LechPenalty
75'
A. Kowalski
90'
M. Cabaj
90'
R. Szywacz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Garbarnia Kraków 0 – 2 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Garbarnia Kraków 2-0 in I Liga on May 11, 2019.

Goals: G. Lech (57', 64' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).