Garbarnia Kraków 1–1 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

3/4/2023

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków41%

×Draw27%

Stomil Olsztyn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków

1.35

Stomil Olsztyn

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.42

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.57

Stomil Olsztyn

0.94

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.42

Stomil Olsztyn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

67%

Garbarnia Kraków or Stomil Olsztyn

73%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

59%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

19%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

74%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

39%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

15%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

69%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

33%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

55%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

41%

level

27%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

33%

Garbarnia Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff