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Stoke City vs QPR — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
QPR
QPR
12/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Bet365 Stadium
Big match
41%
Stoke City
model favours
41%29%30%
1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Stoke City41%
×Draw29%
QPR30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.23
QPR
1.01

Stoke City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 61 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
QPR
1.27

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
70%
Stoke City or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
35%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
64%
QPR 2+ goals
27%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
58%
QPR (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

QPR attack 0.79 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more
41%
level
29%
QPR scores more
30%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stoke City
Balanced
QPR
Balanced
50%Possession48%
75%Pass accuracy75%
11.4Shots11.9
1.12xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityQPR

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Stoke City
3
Draws
3
QPR
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 30%
0–00–13–11–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
QPR
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face QPR (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting QPR. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host QPR at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.