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Stoke City vs QPR — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
QPR
QPR
M. Manhoef 54'
J. Tchamadeu 44'
Bae Jun-Ho 21'
Yang Min-Hyeok 78'
3/29/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Stoke City45%
×Draw28%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.33
QPR
0.96

Stoke City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.37
QPR
0.82

allows per match

Stoke City
1.09
QPR
1.28

finishing

Stoke City+0.49scores more
QPR+0.14scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
73%
Stoke City or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
21%
QPR wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
74%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
15%
QPR 1+ goals
62%
QPR 2+ goals
25%
QPR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
QPR (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 14 matches

QPR away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.37 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

QPR attack 0.82 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more
45%
level
28%
QPR scores more
27%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
M. ManhoefStoke CityStoke City · M
8.5

Match Events

21'
Bae Jun-Ho↳ J. Tchamadeu
43'
Jonathan Varane
44'
J. Tchamadeu
46'
Yang Min-Hyeok← K. Dembélé
46'
A. Lloyd← K. Morgan
46'
N. Madsen← L. Andersen
54'
M. Manhoef
58'
Jack Colback
61'
N. Lowe← S. Gallagher
67'
Ben Pearson
67'
Yang Min-hyeok
69'
J. Thompson← B. Pearson
69'
L. Koumas← Bae Jun-Ho
69'
H. Ashby← K. Paal
74'
L. Morrison← J. Varane
78'
Yang Min-Hyeok↳ J. Colback

Possession

46%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

49%Stoke

Statistics

StokeQPR
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots9
1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.54
3Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots9
6On Target3
5Off Target2
0Blocked4
8Inside Box3
3Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
384Total Passes452
298Accurate Passes363
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.33Goals Prevented0.33
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Stoke City 3 – 1 QPR

Stoke City beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on March 29, 2025.

Goals: Bae Jun-Ho (21'), J. Tchamadeu (44'), M. Manhoef (54'), Yang Min-Hyeok (78').

QPR controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.