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Stoke City vs QPR — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
1/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Stoke City45%
×Draw29%
QPR26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.25
QPR
0.89

Stoke City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.28
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Stoke City
1.00
QPR
1.23

finishing

Stoke City+0.41scores more
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
74%
Stoke City or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
QPR (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.23 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.28 + QPR defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

QPR attack 0.78 + Stoke City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more
45%
level
29%
QPR scores more
26%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
A. PhillipsStoke CityStoke City · D
8.2

Match Events

29'
Ben Pearson
29'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
37'
Divin Mubama
45+4'
Lamine Cissé
50'
Jimmy Dunne
56'
M. Manhoef← D. Mubama
71'
D. Bennie← K. Dembele
76'
E. Bocat← B. Lawal
78'
Richard Kone
86'
Esquerdinha← P. Smyth
87'
T. Seko← B. Pearson
87'
K. Adamson← R. Kolli
90+10'
Daniel Bennie

Possession

73%Stoke

Shots

12Stoke

Pass accuracy

60%Stoke

Statistics

StokeQPR
Overview
73%Possession27%
12Total Shots7
0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.29
6Corners2
11Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots7
3On Target2
5Off Target4
4Blocked1
7Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
73%Possession27%
550Total Passes203
476Accurate Passes119
87%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.21Goals Prevented0.21
Discipline
11Fouls10
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Stoke City vs QPR

Stoke City and QPR drew 0-0 in Championship on January 17, 2026.

Stoke City controlled possession (73%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bet365 Stadium in Stoke on Trent.