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QPR vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
H. Vale 75'
9/20/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw27%
Stoke City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.40
Stoke City
1.08

QPR creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

QPR
1.37
Stoke City
1.06

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Stoke City
1.43

finishing

QPR-0.02on par
Stoke City-0.53scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
21%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
75%
QPR 2+ goals
41%
QPR 3+ goals
17%
Stoke City 1+ goals
66%
Stoke City 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.43 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.37 + Stoke City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stoke City attack 1.06 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
29%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. ValeQPRQPR · M
8.5

Match Events

39'
Ben Pearson
42'
Rhys Norrington-Davies
46'
T. Seko← B. Pearson
52'
Lewis Baker
55'
J. Bae← T. Rigo
55'
L. Cisse← M. Manhoef
60'
I. Hayden← J. Varane
64'
Isaac Hayden
67'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
72'
Rumarn Burrell
75'
H. Vale
81'
R. Bozenik← D. Mubama
88'
Bosun Lawal
90+3'
Paul Nardi

Possession

35%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

45%QPR

Statistics

QPRStoke
Overview
35%Possession65%
14Total Shots7
1.33Expected Goals (xG)1.09
3Corners6
8Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots7
7On Target1
5Off Target3
2Blocked3
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
35%Possession65%
244Total Passes440
170Accurate Passes376
70%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
0.75Goals Prevented0.75
Discipline
8Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

QPR 1 – 0 Stoke City

QPR beat Stoke City 1-0 in Championship on September 20, 2025.

Goals: H. Vale (75').

Stoke City controlled possession (65%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.