Stoke City 1–0 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Stoke City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

QPR

J. Brown 45+1'

4/23/2022

Championship · Round 44bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Stoke City41%

×Draw29%

QPR31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Stoke City

1.22

QPR

1.02

Stoke City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.17

creates per match

0.79

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Stoke City

1.24

QPR

1.27

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

69%

Stoke City or QPR

71%

Draw or QPR

59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

QPR wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

QPR 1+ goals

64%

QPR 2+ goals

27%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

57%

QPR (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

QPR attack 0.79 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

41%

level

29%

QPR scores more

31%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Brown

Stoke City · F

7.6

Match Events

13'

45+1'

57'

57'

69'

76'

82'

S. Clucas← R. Sawyers

90+5'

T. Campbell← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeQPR

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots10

9Corners7

13Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target0

7Off Target8

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

401Total Passes503

300Accurate Passes402

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Stoke City 1 – 0 QPR

Stoke City beat QPR 1-0 in Championship on April 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Brown (45+1').

QPR controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Stoke City vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Stoke City 1 – 0 QPR