Stoke City 1–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

S. Thomas 17'

J. Gelhardt 90'

S. Ajayi 48'

11/29/2025

Championship · Round 18Bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stoke City42%

×Draw26%

Hull City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.21

Stoke City

1.43

Hull City

1.21

Stoke City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

1.16

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

Hull City

1.16

allows per match

Stoke City

1.26

Hull City

1.55

+1.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Stoke City+1.37scores more

Hull City+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

20%

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

76%

Stoke City 2+ goals

42%

Stoke City 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

70%

Hull City 2+ goals

34%

Hull City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

57%

Hull City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Hull City defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hull City attack 1.16 + Stoke City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more

42%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

32%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

I. Pandur

Hull City · G

7.9

Match Events

17'

S. Thomas

46'

M. Belloumi← D. Gyabi

46'

K. Joseph← J. Ndala

48'

S. Ajayi↳ M. Belloumi

68'

A. Famewo← R. Giles

69'

D. Mubama← R. Bozenik

76'

Enis Destan

80'

J. Lundstram← E. Destan

80'

A. Hadziahmetovic← R. Slater

86'

S. N'Zonzi← B. Pearson

86'

S. Gallagher← M. Manhoef

90+8'

90+6'

90+8'

90+8'

90+6'

90'

J. Gelhardt↳ M. Belloumi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeHull

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots11

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.18

7Corners8

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots11

7On Target6

1Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

394Total Passes310

303Accurate Passes209

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.10Goals Prevented0.10

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

6Offsides1

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Hull City

Hull City beat Stoke City 2-1 in Championship on November 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Thomas (17'), S. Ajayi (48'), J. Gelhardt (90').

Stoke City controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bet365 Stadium in Stoke on Trent.

Stoke City vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Hull City