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Hull City vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
R. Bozenik 39'
1/1/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw28%
Stoke City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.23
Stoke City
1.05

Hull City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.12
Stoke City
0.76

allows per match

Hull City
1.34
Stoke City
1.33

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or Stoke City
72%
Draw or Stoke City
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Stoke City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
71%
Hull City 2+ goals
35%
Hull City 3+ goals
13%
Stoke City 1+ goals
65%
Stoke City 2+ goals
28%
Stoke City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
56%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stoke City attack 0.76 + Hull City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
28%
Stoke City scores more
31%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
B. GibsonStoke CityStoke City · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
Matt Crooks
39'
R. Bozenik
45+1'
Regan Slater
46'
J. Ndala← K. Joseph
54'
S. Gallagher← R. Bozenik
69'
Jun-Ho Bae
73'
E. Destan← D. Gyabi
73'
K. Palmer← A. Famewo
82'
Joel Ndala
89'
B. Akintola← L. Millar
89'
A. Hadziahmetovic← R. Slater
90+4'
Maksym Talovierov
90+6'
T. Seko← T. Rigo
90+13'
S. N'Zonzi← B. Lawal
90+6'
M. Manhoef← L. Cisse

Possession

51%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

50%Hull

Statistics

HullStoke
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots12
1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.65
6Corners6
13Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots12
1On Target6
9Off Target3
5Blocked3
12Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
381Total Passes369
272Accurate Passes266
71%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
0.40Goals Prevented0.40
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Stoke City

Stoke City beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on January 1, 2026.

Goals: R. Bozenik (39').

Hull City controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.