Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
X. Shaqiri 80'
P. Crouch 66'
M. Arnautović 6'
H. Maguire 51'
4/15/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Stoke City53%
×Draw25%
Hull City22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.60
Hull City
0.92

Stoke City creates 74% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Hull City
0.53

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Hull City
1.89

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
78%
Stoke City or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
47%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
28%
Hull City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
80%
Stoke City 2+ goals
47%
Stoke City 3+ goals
22%
Hull City 1+ goals
60%
Hull City 2+ goals
23%
Hull City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
71%
Hull City (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hull City attack 0.53 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stoke City scores more
53%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
22%

Stoke City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
X. ShaqiriStoke CityStoke City · F
8.3

Match Events

6'
M. Arnautović↳ X. Shaqiri
45'
Oumar Niasse
51'
H. Maguire↳ A. Ranocchia
58'
J. Walters← C. Adam
58'
P. Crouch← S. Berahino
66'
P. Crouch↳ J. Walters
70'
Lazar Marković
70'
A. Hernández← T. Huddlestone
80'
X. Shaqiri↳ M. Arnautović
86'
D. Mbokani← O. Niasse
86'
Ahmed El Mohamady← L. Marković
88'
M. Diouf← X. Shaqiri

Possession

44%Stoke

Shots

14Stoke

Pass accuracy

49%Stoke

Statistics

StokeHull
Overview
44%Possession56%
14Total Shots14
3Corners7
12Fouls5
Shots
14Total Shots14
4On Target3
6Off Target6
4Blocked5
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
359Total Passes436
264Accurate Passes330
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls5
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Hull City

Stoke City beat Hull City 3-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2017.

Goals: M. Arnautović (6'), H. Maguire (51'), P. Crouch (66'), X. Shaqiri (80').

Hull City controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.